In the Media

Family Office Real Estate Institute Podcast · Episode 127

Investing Where Others Won’t: A Global Family Office Real Estate Strategy

Bruce Talley in conversation with DJ Van Keuren

· Interview transcript · 41 minutes

Watch the original interview

The conversation

Bruce Talley joins DJ Van Keuren to discuss residential real estate in Ukraine, the role of local operational support, foreign ownership, geopolitical risk, and the investment thesis informed by European peer markets.

  • — Bruce’s background and destination services
  • — Residential real estate in Kyiv, Lviv and Odesa
  • — Foreign ownership and portfolio strategy
  • — War risk, reconstruction and European integration

Source: original episode from Family Office Real Estate Institute Podcast. The transcript below is the supplied transcript, with line breaks consolidated for reading. It may contain transcription errors, including names, places and figures. Statements reflect the interview, not independently verified facts or current investment advice; this is not an offer to buy or sell securities.

Full transcript

00:00:06

For the last 25 years, I've been in real

00:00:08

estate, which is my passion.

00:00:11

Back in 2015, I started working in the

00:00:14

family office space directly for several

00:00:16

prominent families on their real estate

00:00:18

portfolios.

00:00:20

With 70% of families losing their wealth

00:00:22

by the second generation and 90% by the

00:00:26

third generation,

00:00:28

I then realized that real estate would

00:00:30

be the missing component for families,

00:00:33

allowing them to maintain their legacy

00:00:35

and mitigate how much wealth is lost for

00:00:38

future generations.

00:00:40

It was shortly after working for my

00:00:42

first single family office that I

00:00:44

started interviewing successful real

00:00:46

estate families and industry experts.

00:00:49

These conversations

00:00:51

combined with my firstirhand experience

00:00:53

of working for families on their real

00:00:55

estate investments and currently

00:00:57

investing on behalf of families that has

00:01:00

allowed me to share this knowledge with

00:01:02

other family offices, family members,

00:01:05

and family office professionals so they

00:01:08

too can be good stewards of wealth.

00:01:11

I'm DJ Vancur and this is Family Office

00:01:14

Real Estate Insights from the Family

00:01:17

Office Real Estate Institute.

00:01:35

Welcome to the Family Office Real Estate

00:01:38

Institute. Today,

00:01:40

uh, we're going to be talking with Bruce

00:01:42

Tally, and we're going to be talking

00:01:44

about some international,

00:01:46

uh, real estate in, I would say, one of

00:01:49

the places in the world you probably

00:01:51

wouldn't think about initially.

00:01:53

So, Bruce, thanks for, uh, being on the

00:01:57

>> Thanks a lot. It's a pleasure to be

00:02:00

So, first off, tell us a little bit

00:02:02

about who you are and your background

00:02:05

and then we'll get into the topic.

00:02:09

>> Okay. Sure enough. I uh I worked for an

00:02:12

investment banking firm in California

00:02:14

for many years. Uh sold traded bond

00:02:18

issues, municipal bond issues.

00:02:20

California's got a very robust uh uh

00:02:23

bond market with a lot of issuers and

00:02:26

eventually led West Coast sales there.

00:02:30

Um and I developed a secondary book of

00:02:33

business selling loan participations to

00:02:35

community banks for

00:02:38

Native American casinos, hotels, condo

00:02:41

projects, that sort of thing. Still

00:02:43

debt, but not securitized.

00:02:45

Later on I had this idea that um

00:02:48

subsequently was proven false was that

00:02:51

Russia was going to join the community

00:02:53

of nations be a responsible member that

00:02:55

there and that there was a big

00:02:57

opportunity there. there's a big market.

00:02:59

Um it it it there there was a chance uh

00:03:04

you know for Russia be to become maybe

00:03:08

something like Poland or the Czech

00:03:10

Republic

00:03:12

in the way that they've developed the

00:03:13

the rule of law and more democratic

00:03:16

norms. And so I live I lived in Russia

00:03:19

for about 10 years. I bought and sold

00:03:21

commercial land in South Russia in a

00:03:22

region called Crescent Arc riots on the

00:03:24

east side of the Black Sea north of the

00:03:26

Cauasus Mountains. Uh had some great

00:03:29

results. Eventually I developed what

00:03:31

became destination Sochi. Um the

00:03:34

Olympics were coming to to Russia, the

00:03:37

Winter Olympics in 2014. So I started a

00:03:40

company and didn't know anything about

00:03:42

this industry at the time but I started

00:03:43

a company providing destination services

00:03:46

for the Olympic broadcasters partners

00:03:48

and sponsors that were going to come

00:03:50

there. So we provided services from

00:03:52

about 2011 to 2014. You know tours to

00:03:57

begin with events later on workforce

00:04:01

relocation together with financial

00:04:03

management of the contracts, TV studios,

00:04:05

offices, warehouses, staffing, catering,

00:04:07

laundry, uh transportation systems,

00:04:10

everything you could think of. We had

00:04:11

about 60 employees and became the

00:04:13

largest company of our kind in in

00:04:14

Russia. And later on I took that down to

00:04:16

Brazil. And then I I had uh subsequent

00:04:20

business in both Korea and Japan. But in

00:04:26

I was watching events in Ukraine

00:04:29

closely. 2013 2014 the revolution of

00:04:32

dignity, the events on the uh on

00:04:34

Independent Square in in in Kev. And the

00:04:38

FSB, their internal security service,

00:04:41

had spent about 5 years questioning me,

00:04:43

following me, talking to me,

00:04:44

interrogating me, everything you can

00:04:46

think of because they were suspicious

00:04:48

that uh because I was operating in I

00:04:50

operated in a couple regions that for

00:04:52

them were somewhat sensitive and they

00:04:54

were concerned that perhaps I was

00:04:56

working in the CIA. So I got a lot of

00:04:59

scrutiny for years and years and years.

00:05:00

>> Have you read the book Red Notice?

00:05:02

>> Yes, I have. Yeah. Yeah.

00:05:04

>> Do you might do you know Bill, brother?

00:05:06

>> I don't know him personally. know um but

00:05:10

what he talked about was very familiar

00:05:12

to me um I got a lot of scrutiny you

00:05:16

know on a different level than Bill Mr.

00:05:18

Browder. He was at that time was the

00:05:20

largest investor, foreign investor in

00:05:22

Russia. And it what was really

00:05:24

impressive is how he built that that

00:05:25

that company up. But but none of that

00:05:28

really surprised me and I was living

00:05:30

there during that period of time when

00:05:32

Sergey Magnitzki was killed.

00:05:34

>> Yeah.

00:05:35

>> So none of that was particularly

00:05:36

surprising. Anyway, I left in 2014. They

00:05:39

asked my opinions about what was

00:05:41

happening in Ukraine and I made it

00:05:42

really clear. I thought Ukraine should

00:05:44

be able to make their own decisions

00:05:45

without Russian interference. And it was

00:05:47

just a matter of time from that moment

00:05:48

on. I knew it was just a matter of time

00:05:50

until they began to

00:05:54

um accuse Americans of espionage. You

00:05:57

know, drop a flash drive in their

00:05:58

luggage or something like this. I knew

00:06:00

it would happen and somewhat locally

00:06:03

since I was somewhat prominent in South

00:06:05

Russia, uh I used social media and video

00:06:09

to to get the word out. So, um I thought

00:06:12

that I was somewhat of a target and it

00:06:14

was time time to leave. So, I left in in

00:06:16

in 2014. Then in 2022, and I know you

00:06:19

probably have questions about this. I'm

00:06:21

sorry if I'm running on a little bit,

00:06:23

but uh in 2022, immediately after Russia

00:06:27

escalated the war that they began in

00:06:29

2014, within I say immediately, within

00:06:32

four or five weeks, I was in Ukraine

00:06:34

um to learn what was going on. I knew a

00:06:37

lot about Ukraine from uh my time in in

00:06:39

in Russia. I'd been to Ukraine many,

00:06:41

many times and was quite familiar with

00:06:43

the country. So, I've been initially I

00:06:47

took um trauma kits and medical

00:06:50

equipment, those kinds of things over

00:06:52

and I've been back very regularly since.

00:06:54

I've started uh a company, Destination

00:06:56

Ukraine, to provide destination services

00:06:58

for the companies that relocate there.

00:07:00

And I've also been working with

00:07:02

investors on some projects. I've taken

00:07:05

uh some tech investors over uh land

00:07:08

developers um a modular building company

00:07:11

that's interested in setting up a

00:07:13

factory and then most specific to you

00:07:16

know our top our main topic um I'm

00:07:19

partnered with Doug Clayton of Leopard

00:07:21

Capital to launch a private real estate

00:07:24

fund focused on uh residential in

00:07:27

Ukraine.

00:07:28

>> Okay. So first off um let's talk about

00:07:32

this destination.

00:07:34

services and company. Tell me a little

00:07:36

bit more about what that looks like,

00:07:39

what that involves. Um, and um,

00:07:44

yeah, because I would imagine it's the

00:07:45

same thing in the different locations

00:07:47

around the world providing the same

00:07:49

services. It's just that you're in a

00:07:50

different location, right? So, what

00:07:52

exactly

00:07:54

is destination location

00:07:57

>> assistance? Great question. And it's one

00:07:59

of those things that kind of slips under

00:08:01

the radar and you don't really think

00:08:02

about. Somebody else put the bee in my

00:08:04

bonnet

00:08:06

uh early in the Olympic cycle before um

00:08:10

Sochi. We were in Sochi, an American

00:08:13

investor. We were looking around at some

00:08:15

property and he said we were there when

00:08:17

the the bid was announced that the that

00:08:20

the Russians had won for Sochi in 2014.

00:08:22

And he he looked around he said they're

00:08:24

going to need so much. They're going to

00:08:25

need portaotties. They're going to need

00:08:26

all this. and it it kind of put the bee

00:08:28

in my bonnet. And so it's providing

00:08:32

services.

00:08:33

Uh really it's a for us it's turnkey

00:08:36

service. So a company comes in, what do

00:08:39

you do? Um

00:08:42

do you need offices? Do you need

00:08:44

staffing? Do you need workforce

00:08:45

relocation?

00:08:47

What are the services? And we provided,

00:08:50

you know, a menu of services that uh

00:08:52

they can pick and choose from what they

00:08:54

need. And of course with the Olympics,

00:08:57

it's you've got a compressed time frame.

00:08:59

And there are these technical companies

00:09:00

that provide the services around the

00:09:02

Olympics, the rigging, the lighting, the

00:09:04

timing, the video screens, you know, the

00:09:06

broadcast systems, all of these systems.

00:09:09

Um, they require engineers, they require

00:09:11

people building drywall, you know, all

00:09:13

of this kind of stuff to to usually to

00:09:16

finish out the broadcast center, for

00:09:17

example. And so,

00:09:19

um, we would provide apartments that had

00:09:23

to be, uh, fixed to their specifics in

00:09:27

their contracts with their employees.

00:09:28

And we, we did, um, we provided, not

00:09:32

only did we provide the apartments, but

00:09:33

we also paid for them. So, we paid the

00:09:35

taxes, the rent, utility, Wi-Fi,

00:09:37

everything like that. So, it was kind of

00:09:38

a turnkey service. They would come, we

00:09:42

have folks, they need to get to work,

00:09:43

they need laundry, they need breakfast.

00:09:46

Um, you know, like that. And then later

00:09:47

when the broadcasters showed up, it was

00:09:49

similar, more intense. They might need a

00:09:53

a TV studio um and or sec andor security

00:09:57

and staffing and interpreters and you

00:10:00

know maybe events, catering, all this

00:10:03

kind of thing. So uh really it's it's

00:10:05

problem solving. And of course, Ukraine

00:10:09

is going to be faced with a

00:10:11

very very large reconstruction project.

00:10:17

so there'll be a lot of companies that

00:10:19

will be need similar services. It's it's

00:10:21

kind of the same thing. Maybe they'll

00:10:23

need work permits and building permits.

00:10:25

Maybe they want to buy a building. Um

00:10:27

they need work for force relocation.

00:10:29

They need interpreters. They need legal.

00:10:30

They need staffing. They might need

00:10:32

security transportation. All of these

00:10:35

kinds of services. So, it's kind of soup

00:10:38

to nuts, but not every country, not

00:10:41

every company needs each one of those

00:10:43

services. So, they're free to pick and

00:10:44

choose. And so, we're a a very reliable

00:10:48

service. I've done this now in multiple

00:10:50

countries and and um have the systems in

00:10:54

place and the people in place that can

00:10:56

speak virtually every Indo-Uropean

00:10:58

language and a number of the East Asian

00:11:00

ones as well. So,

00:11:03

>> well, I'll tell you the um so I went

00:11:05

over to Russia for the first time

00:11:07

probably

00:11:09

five, six years ago, maybe it was. And

00:11:12

um you know, my expectation

00:11:15

was much different, you know, more so of

00:11:18

what you see in the movies. And I didn't

00:11:21

realize how much of an international

00:11:24

city it is, how clean it was, and how

00:11:28

nice it was. I mean it was it was um it

00:11:32

was a you know a great experience. The

00:11:34

one thing that I I continue to remember

00:11:37

and it comes to my mind all the time is

00:11:40

seeing buildings that have scaffolds

00:11:43

that they're working on in the city and

00:11:46

then they'll put this

00:11:48

drape sort of over the side of it that

00:11:51

makes it look like the building

00:11:54

>> and it's so clean and I'm like New York

00:11:56

should be doing that because you know

00:11:59

they they don't do anything like that.

00:12:00

And it was it was really um I thought

00:12:04

that was I thought that was fascinating.

00:12:07

Um you know my friend that I went over

00:12:08

to see there he right when the Russia

00:12:11

and Ukraine war happened um he he just

00:12:15

left he left everything behind and and

00:12:17

all his stuff everything in his

00:12:19

apartment and just off he went.

00:12:22

>> Yeah. A lot of folks a lot of folks did

00:12:25

that. I know some people that have left

00:12:26

Russia because of the moral opposition

00:12:29

to invading Ukraine and killing people

00:12:31

and trying to take their land. You're

00:12:33

you're right though. Moscow is a big,

00:12:36

fun, fast, exciting city. There are few

00:12:39

places in the world like it. St.

00:12:41

Petersburg is really a beautiful place

00:12:43

as well. But if you get out into

00:12:46

provincial Russia, you see that the vast

00:12:49

majority of all the wealth, all the

00:12:51

power, the cultural uh whatever is

00:12:54

happening culturally is concentrated in

00:12:56

those cities. And so there's a big big

00:12:59

drop off in standards of living. There

00:13:02

are a couple of other cities that are

00:13:04

doing relatively well. Crashadar, Sochi,

00:13:07

uh Nishnov,

00:13:09

uh Novas, which I actually don't know.

00:13:11

there's some other cities but you know a

00:13:14

lot of the provincial areas are really

00:13:15

really struggling and I understand even

00:13:17

more so now during this period of of the

00:13:20

war so um Moscow Moscow is a is a great

00:13:25

city there's no question about it uh but

00:13:29

you know a big you get 100 kilometers

00:13:31

out of that city and you're going back

00:13:33

many many years in time and in lifestyle

00:13:36

and and

00:13:37

>> which is pro probably more of what I was

00:13:39

expecting

00:13:40

>> yeah you uh going on the outside. So, we

00:13:44

know that the the war has been going on

00:13:45

for a while now in Ukraine. We don't

00:13:48

really see anything that's sort of

00:13:50

stopping um immediately at least. And

00:13:56

at least what is portrayed across the

00:13:58

media and I know it differs based upon

00:14:01

what media platform you're listening to

00:14:03

not only in US but globally is that

00:14:07

there's a lot of buildings that have

00:14:12

just taken out aren't there a lot of a

00:14:15

lot of you know there which is going to

00:14:17

need the construction and everything

00:14:19

else and so a and the bombing is

00:14:22

continuing to happen So, how did you

00:14:24

come about

00:14:27

looking at building apartments in the

00:14:30

Ukraine?

00:14:32

>> Yeah. Well, we're not going to build.

00:14:35

We're We want to buy uh new apartments

00:14:39

or near new in prime prime districts

00:14:44

and uh also renovate in historic center,

00:14:51

you know, buy buy apartments that are in

00:14:53

great locations and need that. But but

00:14:56

but to to to answer your question, um

00:15:01

I looked at doing a lot of different

00:15:02

things in Russia and as I said, I bought

00:15:04

and sold some land. And at the end of

00:15:07

the day, the investment that would have

00:15:10

worked the best or did work the best

00:15:13

simply buying apartments. Moscow uh or

00:15:18

apartments in Moscow have went up

00:15:22

between 2000 20120 about 1,200%. So

00:15:26

there's a 12 times increase in value and

00:15:31

you know that's pretty tremendous and

00:15:33

that is and it's continued and so prices

00:15:36

the average price of an apartment in

00:15:38

Moscow right now of new build is about

00:15:40

$25,000

00:15:42

per square $25,000 per square meter. So

00:15:46

that's more than just on average that's

00:15:48

almost $3,000 a square foot and uh

00:15:52

that's average and some of them are 40

00:15:54

or 50,000 euros per square meter. So um

00:15:59

and and that's with the ruble declining

00:16:01

about 60%.

00:16:03

So I I was sure starting in about 2023

00:16:08

that real estate or residential real

00:16:10

estate was really a good option in

00:16:12

Ukraine because prices are between

00:16:15

six and 10 or 12 times less in Kev,

00:16:19

Leviv and Adessa than they are in

00:16:21

Russia. Now,

00:16:23

Ukraine and Russia have some

00:16:25

differences, but there are some sim

00:16:26

similarities in culture, uh, in business

00:16:29

systems, in legal systems, and also in

00:16:32

the in the infrastructure and how people

00:16:34

move around. And those cities were not

00:16:36

built with, you know, big freeways

00:16:38

funneling folks in and out. So,

00:16:40

locations are always important, but I

00:16:42

think even more so in a lot of these

00:16:44

posts Soviet capitals. Both Kev and

00:16:46

Moscow have got about 20% of their

00:16:48

respective nations gross domestic

00:16:50

product. So I I I believe that uh

00:16:55

residential is really really

00:16:57

undervalued. And

00:16:59

>> and you're and you're talking about not

00:17:02

apartment buildings but individual

00:17:05

units,

00:17:06

>> right? And here's here's

00:17:07

>> like condos like condos here in the US

00:17:10

basically.

00:17:10

>> Yeah, we would call them condos here in

00:17:11

the US. Here's here's the the

00:17:13

difference. is that about 70 to probably

00:17:17

north of 80% of the folks that live in

00:17:19

Kev um live in apartments and they they

00:17:23

want to they typically own them, right?

00:17:25

So, um,

00:17:32

the the premise is that when an

00:17:36

apartment building is built, you don't

00:17:38

have an owner of a multifamily project

00:17:41

who's, you know, like Fairfield or some

00:17:43

other company that is rent builds or

00:17:46

buys a 400 unit apartment complex and

00:17:49

then leases them all out. Typically

00:17:51

speaking, in fact, I can't think of a

00:17:53

single contrary example in several

00:17:56

decades of looking at this in Russia or

00:17:59

Ukraine where there's an owner that uh

00:18:03

rents an entire building out. It's they

00:18:06

uh build a building and during the

00:18:08

process of building it, they sell the

00:18:09

units out and the closer it gets to

00:18:13

final construction to the construction

00:18:14

being completed, the higher the price.

00:18:17

So, the earlier on you're taking a

00:18:19

greater risk. you get a you get a price

00:18:21

advantage. And so what that does for us

00:18:25

is that it allows us to buy in a number

00:18:30

of different locations in or build andor

00:18:34

buildings. And you know, you touched on

00:18:37

the damage and it's true there has been

00:18:39

extensive hundreds of billions of

00:18:41

dollars worth of damage, but it tends to

00:18:44

be concentrated

00:18:46

more in the east of the country. Now if

00:18:50

you watch the news there there are

00:18:52

nightly attacks on Kev and Adessa to

00:18:55

lesser extent Lviv but the damage is the

00:18:59

number of damage or destroyed apartments

00:19:01

in in these cities is less than 1%. So,

00:19:04

while I don't mean to minimize the human

00:19:07

cost and the terrible tragedy, that's

00:19:09

that's a lot of homes still, you know,

00:19:11

it's I think it's five or six thousand

00:19:13

in in Kev out of a total uh apartment

00:19:16

stock of over 800,000.

00:19:18

So, we feel that by, you know, moving

00:19:21

being in different districts in

00:19:22

different buildings that we're achieving

00:19:24

enough diversification that um that kind

00:19:28

of loss is not catastrophic. you know,

00:19:31

back in 2003,

00:19:34

um I here in the States, I put together

00:19:36

what was going to be the first single

00:19:37

family REIT. And so part of my research

00:19:41

was, you know, who's doing what. And I

00:19:44

remember there was another number of

00:19:46

companies that I ran across in Europe

00:19:49

that would either buy the floor, right?

00:19:52

They weren't buying the buildings or

00:19:53

they'd buy individual units just like

00:19:55

you're talking about and and they would

00:19:57

aggregate them, you know, together. Um

00:20:00

and that's what it sounds like and u

00:20:04

similar right just

00:20:06

>> yeah exactly you know there are as you

00:20:09

point out there are great historical

00:20:10

precedents in Poland and the Czech

00:20:13

Republic. There are other companies that

00:20:14

have done this exact thing in the post

00:20:17

EU accession environment. They bought a

00:20:20

number of apartments, aggregated it,

00:20:22

sold it to a, you know, an investor,

00:20:24

pension fund, insurance company, or or

00:20:27

somebody that wants to own u you know.

00:20:30

>> So, so um Oh, a couple questions. So, is

00:20:34

your your exit strategy to sell it as a

00:20:38

portfolio or individually?

00:20:40

>> That's right. It's um it's to we think

00:20:43

that uh we're convinced that the similar

00:20:47

kinds of folks in Europe especially that

00:20:49

are buying those portfolios in Poland

00:20:52

and Hungary and Czech Republic and then

00:20:54

the Baltics, we think that they're the

00:20:56

our customers. There's value in having a

00:21:02

you know a sizable portfolio of

00:21:04

apartments spread across three cities

00:21:06

with with excellent returns.

00:21:09

And of course you achieve some some

00:21:11

economies right if you sell it offshore

00:21:15

there are advantages um the money stays

00:21:18

in the country right and

00:21:21

um it's it's uh obviously less costly

00:21:25

from a from a and from a time and and uh

00:21:30

sales perspective as well if you're

00:21:32

selling one by one as opposed to the

00:21:33

whole portfolio. Now when I lived in

00:21:37

Vietnam, there was an issue having to do

00:21:40

with ownership and that happens in a

00:21:41

number of countries, right? Where there

00:21:44

has to be you have to have a partner

00:21:46

either to do business to be there,

00:21:48

right? Or ownership has to be a certain

00:21:52

percentage 5149.

00:21:54

Can foreigners purchase these properties

00:21:57

or do you actually need a partner?

00:21:59

That's that's a a great uh a great point

00:22:02

and that's you know I know that that's

00:22:04

the case in a number of of countries

00:22:06

especially in Southeast Asia. In Ukraine

00:22:09

you can hold an apartment as a as a

00:22:12

foreigner. We'll have a an onshore

00:22:16

company or companies that own the

00:22:18

apartments. We don't have to have a uh

00:22:23

uh we don't have to split ownership in

00:22:25

that way. So, um, but it's it's it's an

00:22:30

excellent question and and one of the

00:22:31

things one of the reasons why I believe

00:22:33

this is so attractive is that it's a

00:22:36

great store of wealth. It's the law

00:22:38

works very well for buying and selling

00:22:41

apartments in Ukraine. It's where people

00:22:44

that have money put it. It's a, you

00:22:46

know, it's a store of value. They can

00:22:48

live in it. They can rent it out. And

00:22:50

there's a lot more trust in property

00:22:52

than there are in the securities

00:22:53

markets. So the law works really well

00:22:55

for buying and selling and renting

00:22:57

apartments in Ukraine and the contracts

00:23:00

when we our idea where our plan we will

00:23:03

buy these apartments rent them out and

00:23:06

then as Ukrainian economy grows

00:23:10

eventually it sees to the EU property

00:23:13

values and rents are going to rise. But

00:23:16

the great the great situation here is

00:23:18

that the um all the contracts are

00:23:23

engraved up but pegged to the dollar. So

00:23:25

we're not taking a currency risk.

00:23:28

>> What um

00:23:31

okay let's say that that Russia does

00:23:36

take over Ukraine. Ukraine says fine or

00:23:40

whatever. not fine. But I mean, they end

00:23:44

including it in their,

00:23:47

you know, as part of their part of

00:23:49

Russia,

00:23:50

>> right, which he's trying to do, I

00:23:52

believe. And and so how would that

00:23:55

impact

00:23:57

everything that you're working on?

00:23:59

>> Well, it'd be I I fear it would be, you

00:24:02

know, a catastrophe for not just us, but

00:24:04

the Ukrainians. And so I I don't think

00:24:08

that that's

00:24:11

that is a risk. I don't think it's um a

00:24:15

particularly

00:24:17

strong risk. In nearly four years of

00:24:19

war, they've haven't really gained much

00:24:22

territory from what they were

00:24:24

controlling um in 2022. So I don't

00:24:29

believe that there's a high likelihood

00:24:31

that they'll be in Kev, Adessa, and or

00:24:34

Lviv. I I just don't think that it's

00:24:36

it's a risk, but um I think a a

00:24:40

relatively low percentage like low

00:24:43

single digits that they get to those

00:24:45

cities. There's still a number, you

00:24:47

know, uh all these cities are some

00:24:50

distance away from the front lines. The

00:24:52

Russians haven't been able to cross the

00:24:53

neper um at Hersan since 200 I can't

00:24:58

remember was 2022 or 2023 when they

00:25:01

pushed them back across the river. So

00:25:03

that's the closest. And when you're in

00:25:04

Adessa, we were in Adessa at the end of

00:25:07

August and early September. It's really

00:25:09

interesting because people are living,

00:25:12

working, vacationing, get getting

00:25:14

married. Other than uh

00:25:18

and again, not to minimize the human

00:25:20

tragedy here, but they're building

00:25:22

apartments right now in every one of

00:25:24

these cities. Significant numbers. Now

00:25:26

the the construction has dropped off

00:25:29

about to about 45% of pre-war levels.

00:25:32

But you if if you and I went there now I

00:25:35

could show you a number of buildings

00:25:36

that are in Adessa that are being

00:25:38

constructed.

00:25:40

And so I think that that's a risk but I

00:25:43

think it's uh it's more than priced into

00:25:46

the discount.

00:25:51

what's the chance or how how much how

00:25:54

close have they has Russia gotten to the

00:25:56

city center?

00:25:58

>> You know, in 2022 they were at an air

00:26:01

airirstrip just outside of Kev. Uh and

00:26:05

they did there were a lot of atrocities

00:26:07

committed in Pin and BHA which are uh

00:26:11

suburbs of Keev. So they were relatively

00:26:13

close at that point in time, but they

00:26:15

haven't been anywhere near there since

00:26:16

then. Um, right now they're hundreds of

00:26:20

miles away.

00:26:22

Um, now if you go to Harkefe, which is I

00:26:25

don't know, maybe it's 350 miles east of

00:26:29

Kev, I should know exactly. They're

00:26:31

they're not too far away from there. And

00:26:33

I've been in Kharkiv. Hark was the

00:26:35

second largest city and really sustained

00:26:37

a lot of damage. So, you know, one of

00:26:42

the things that people tend to think of

00:26:43

is, well, these European countries

00:26:45

aren't so big. Ukraine's sizable. It's

00:26:47

almost the size of Texas. So, what

00:26:49

happens in El Paso? Um, there's quite a

00:26:53

bit of difference between El Paso and

00:26:55

Houston, for example. You know, I think

00:26:56

that's what we're talking about.

00:27:00

In Lviv, I believe out of a housing

00:27:03

stock of about 280,000

00:27:05

apartments has sustained about 200 that

00:27:08

have been lost or severely damaged. So,

00:27:10

that's pretty small percentage. We're

00:27:13

less than 1% in Kev. Uh my best count in

00:27:17

Adessa is about 1,200 apartments out of

00:27:19

about 380,000. And I think that the vast

00:27:22

majority of the damage that's happened

00:27:23

in this war has already happened. So

00:27:26

yeah, undoubtedly a risk, but we think

00:27:29

that the prices more than compensate for

00:27:32

for what that risk is and that most of

00:27:34

the damage in the major major cities has

00:27:36

already happened.

00:27:40

>> So So when did you start thinking about

00:27:42

this thesis?

00:27:44

2023 is when it really came home to me

00:27:47

because I was looking around at these

00:27:48

apartments and thinking, gosh, you know,

00:27:50

they're they're so inexpensive

00:27:52

and I watched apartments just skyrocket

00:27:55

in Russia um over the last several

00:27:58

decades despite the fact and even now

00:28:02

prices are very high despite the fact

00:28:04

the rubles's down you know 60% from

00:28:06

pre2022 levels. So despite all that,

00:28:11

apartments are very very expensive

00:28:13

there. And I I think that there's a a

00:28:15

great case to be made that Adessa is a

00:28:18

more attractive place than Sochi. I

00:28:20

lived in Sochi for a number of years,

00:28:22

but they've got this beautiful historic

00:28:23

center. They got sandy beaches. It's the

00:28:25

major seapport for the country. Hu

00:28:28

historic city center with architecture

00:28:30

that you know is quite beautiful. Kev, I

00:28:33

believe, is going to be

00:28:36

the cool city in the coming decade. you

00:28:38

know what Berlin has been, what

00:28:40

Barcelona was, you know, what London is

00:28:43

on and off as, you know, the center for

00:28:45

digital nomads and for young people and

00:28:48

people that want to experience a fun

00:28:51

cosmopolitan lifestyle. I think Keev is

00:28:53

going to be the hot city in the decades

00:28:55

to come.

00:28:57

>> But is that that also is based upon

00:29:01

the war, right? And how things shake

00:29:03

>> Yes. Yes. Um, but the war will end. And

00:29:10

what that looks like exactly, uh, anyone

00:29:14

I I I don't know. But Russia is so far

00:29:19

from Kev right now. Yes, they're lobbing

00:29:21

missiles in there. But if and I compare

00:29:25

it to cities in the west and you know

00:29:27

this you know you have cities that have

00:29:30

had tremendous damage from fires

00:29:33

>> or hurricanes

00:29:35

>> or hurricanes. And so I mean people hear

00:29:37

war and they think everything in in

00:29:39

Ukraine look looks like Bakmoot. And

00:29:42

again, not to underplay the damage and

00:29:44

the human tragedies, and you can hardly

00:29:46

talk to anybody in Ukraine without

00:29:47

hearing about one of these, but the

00:29:49

damage in Bakmood is entirely different

00:29:51

than what it is in Lviv. Lviv is only

00:29:53

about oh, I think it's around 50 60

00:29:58

miles to the Polish border. And there's

00:30:01

a lot of talk in Ukraine that there will

00:30:04

be a great deal of infrastructure

00:30:05

constructed around Lviv, a ring road, a

00:30:08

new airport, new new roads heading to

00:30:11

the eight Polish Ukrainian U border

00:30:14

crossings. And with labor costs that are

00:30:17

only about a quarter of what they are in

00:30:20

Poland, Ukraine is likely to become a

00:30:22

manufacturing hub for Europe, as is

00:30:24

Muldova.

00:30:26

Costs are so much lower there. and um as

00:30:30

it ases to the EU I think that's just

00:30:33

going to happen. So Lviv Lviv is a

00:30:35

beautiful AustroHungarian city. I think

00:30:38

it's also going to be attractive for

00:30:40

expats and then companies setting up

00:30:43

manufacturing. There are a number of

00:30:44

companies already uh you know kicking

00:30:47

the tires. South Koreans are over there.

00:30:49

There are a couple of very attractive

00:30:50

business parks outside Lviv that um u

00:30:56

the Ukrainian government is giving tax

00:30:58

benefits to. So I mean they're not just

00:31:00

in the Leviv area. They're around 120 I

00:31:03

think of them have been identified

00:31:05

nationwide. But there are so many things

00:31:08

that Ukraine has going for it. Lower

00:31:10

labor costs 25% of the world's best soil

00:31:14

black earth more than any other country

00:31:17

on Earth. Um, so you've got agriculture,

00:31:20

of course, the the rare earths have been

00:31:22

talked about extensively, and

00:31:24

manufacturing, and then you've got an

00:31:27

educated and sophisticated labor force,

00:31:30

particularly particularly in IT,

00:31:34

>> which is a big which is a big thing,

00:31:35

right? I mean, that that's why people

00:31:38

will go from part of the world to a

00:31:40

different part of the world when there's

00:31:43

economics can make better sense, right?

00:31:46

especially if they can get, you know,

00:31:49

personnel. I'll tell you, my my friend

00:31:52

um had lived in probably eight, nine

00:31:54

different countries around the world. He

00:31:56

worked for Colgate and he said the best

00:32:00

employees he ever had, the smartest was

00:32:02

in Russia, actually.

00:32:05

>> Yeah. You know, both countries have a

00:32:07

lot of talented folks. Of course, a lot

00:32:08

of those folks left Russia because of

00:32:11

their opposition to the war or not

00:32:12

wanting to be personally involved. Um

00:32:16

but yeah, Ukraine has got a lot of

00:32:18

talented folks. The other thing that we

00:32:19

see is that probably Ukraine is going to

00:32:21

become a hub for defense manufacturing

00:32:23

because they're at the forefront.

00:32:25

They're the leaders in drone technology

00:32:27

right now.

00:32:29

Yes. And so you see around us, which is

00:32:32

along on the Slovakian border, you see a

00:32:37

number of pharmaceutical and especially

00:32:38

defense companies have set up production

00:32:40

there because I don't think there's been

00:32:42

any uh any damage ink or it's minimal

00:32:46

from the war.

00:32:49

>> Wow. So where are you in the process

00:32:51

with this strategy that we're talking

00:32:54

about?

00:32:55

>> Yeah, we're we're in fund formation. Uh

00:32:58

we're looking for limited partners. We

00:33:00

have a website up uh ukrainec

00:33:03

capital.com. Important to note that uh

00:33:06

my discussion is not a uh offer to buy

00:33:09

or sell securities. That's only done

00:33:11

through legal meth means as you know.

00:33:14

But uh we're in that we're in that

00:33:15

process and we're really excited. It

00:33:17

it's um you know some folks just hear

00:33:21

war and gosh but there are a lot of lot

00:33:24

of people that understand that

00:33:26

postconlict environments

00:33:28

as this is so unique because we will at

00:33:31

some point we will enter a postconlict

00:33:33

environment. What else is the other

00:33:36

thing that's unique is that Ukraine is

00:33:38

almost certainly going to join the EU.

00:33:41

They are on fast track.

00:33:43

France, Germany, Sweden, Poland are all

00:33:46

big supporters of this. And then there's

00:33:48

this wall of money that's going to hit

00:33:50

Ukraine. So all of these factors uh make

00:33:54

for a once in a generation or maybe once

00:33:57

in a lifetime re repricing of

00:33:58

residential real estate.

00:34:00

>> What about debt? Where are you going to

00:34:02

get the debt from? And how much leverage

00:34:05

can you actually get?

00:34:07

We're still working that out, but our

00:34:08

numbers are even without leverage are um

00:34:14

very very attractive. So, initially

00:34:16

we're not planning on leverage.

00:34:19

>> Oh, really? So, you're going 100% in.

00:34:21

>> Yeah.

00:34:23

>> That may change that may change uh as as

00:34:27

we get there, but at this moment we we

00:34:29

uh we don't need leverage to have

00:34:31

excellent returns.

00:34:34

>> Well,

00:34:36

So unlevered, what type of returns are

00:34:39

you projecting?

00:34:43

>> I got to be careful if I

00:34:47

>> what what's the potential of of

00:34:52

middle of the road?

00:34:54

>> Yeah. Well, if you just look at our peer

00:34:57

markets, Moscow uh apartments on average

00:35:02

are around eight times in price what

00:35:05

they are in Kev. If you look at Adessa,

00:35:09

Adessa right now you can buy quality

00:35:11

apartments for either unfinished because

00:35:14

they deliver them without floor and wall

00:35:16

coverings and kitchens and and

00:35:18

bathrooms. Um, but they're they're

00:35:21

cheaper in Adessa and you can buy

00:35:23

apartments there unfinished for around

00:35:25

a,000 maybe $1,500 a square meter which

00:35:29

is some somewhere less than a hundred to

00:35:32

maybe $1,300 a square foot or or$100 to

00:35:36

$130 a square foot. Those apartments are

00:35:39

in Sochi.

00:35:41

They might be between

00:35:44

uh five and $6,000 a square meter up to

00:35:47

25 or $30,000 a square meter. So you're

00:35:52

looking at five, six, eight, 10 times

00:35:55

higher prices. And we think that those

00:35:58

are the the the reference points because

00:36:01

of the similarities in infrastructure in

00:36:04

one where money goes how the laws work

00:36:06

in terms of transferring real estate. So

00:36:11

there's going to be big big rerating. If

00:36:13

you look at what happened in um Estonia

00:36:16

for example, they had multiple years

00:36:19

where residential

00:36:23

exceeded 30% growth peranom in the two

00:36:28

years before joining the EU and the two

00:36:30

years after. Same thing in Poland in the

00:36:33

Czech Republic. So it 30% um annual

00:36:37

returns for those years are not um that

00:36:40

you know there's a precedent for it for

00:36:42

for countries that they had the what

00:36:44

they call the big bang in 2004 and 10

00:36:46

countries joined the EU and there were

00:36:48

there were subsequently there were big

00:36:50

uplifts in um residential prices. So,

00:36:54

you know, I'm not promising

00:36:56

returns here, but if you look at the the

00:36:59

historical press,

00:37:00

>> it's like anytime you're in a distress

00:37:02

or you of any sorts, I mean, we're going

00:37:05

in distress specifically in multifamily,

00:37:09

you know, as well. So, that's where

00:37:11

opportunities come from. And so, you

00:37:14

know, just like you said, when it's

00:37:16

fires or hurricanes, so it makes sense,

00:37:20

right? as long as there's that

00:37:21

fundamental to come out of it.

00:37:24

>> Yeah. And I think I really think that um

00:37:27

it the the risk for fires or hurricanes

00:37:31

are are a good analog. You know, I mean,

00:37:33

there are people that in the Midwest

00:37:35

will say, "Oh, why would you do anything

00:37:36

in Florida because of the hurricanes or

00:37:38

why would you do anything in Colorado or

00:37:40

California because of the wildfires?"

00:37:41

Well, things are happening. People are

00:37:43

still living in those places. So, um I I

00:37:46

think there's a there's a big

00:37:47

opportunity and I think that with

00:37:50

manufacturing, with agriculture, with

00:37:52

defense, with the wall of money that's

00:37:54

going to hit Ukraine, with the law

00:37:56

working very well for exchanging um

00:37:58

apartments, it's it's I think that uh

00:38:01

we're simply the first ones there and in

00:38:03

a few years there are going to be a lot

00:38:05

of other folks that are are, you know,

00:38:07

>> Well, that's good, too, because that

00:38:08

could be part of an exit strategy,

00:38:10

right? if some people are coming in and

00:38:12

you're not taking the full upside, but

00:38:15

still you're taking awful nice upside.

00:38:17

Right.

00:38:17

>> Right.

00:38:18

>> And you have that liquidity component.

00:38:20

So, you know, Bruce, usually when we

00:38:24

when we talk about things here on the um

00:38:28

on the show, we we we really get into

00:38:32

exactly what we're talking about with

00:38:34

from an educational perspective as well.

00:38:37

But I do want you to mention your um

00:38:41

website again because to me this is just

00:38:45

so fascinating and it's it's one of

00:38:48

those um you don't hear much of it,

00:38:51

right? But it makes a lot of sense in

00:38:53

many regards.

00:38:55

>> Yeah, it's uh Ukraine capital.com.

00:39:00

So you can go there and and uh find our

00:39:03

contact information and uh I I my uh

00:39:06

partner on this the CEO in fact of of

00:39:09

Ukraine Capital is Doug Clayton and so

00:39:12

he is uh I've got a lot of experience in

00:39:14

postsviet markets and Doug has got uh a

00:39:18

great deal of experience in private

00:39:21

equity. He raised and managed funds for

00:39:24

Leopard Capital in Cambodia and Haiti

00:39:27

and has a lot of experience in frontier

00:39:30

markets. So, you know, it's a I think

00:39:33

it's a good team.

00:39:35

>> Well, good. Well, Bruce, um thank you so

00:39:37

much for being on the show and would

00:39:40

love to have you back. Um

00:39:43

because to to hear how things are

00:39:45

progressing and what's happening, you

00:39:47

know, because uh it's nice to hear that

00:39:49

there's some positive things in in many

00:39:53

regards that are happening, you know, in

00:39:55

Ukraine. If other companies or countries

00:39:58

are starting to come in, obviously

00:40:00

they're they're looking to help out in

00:40:02

some capacity, obviously. Um but um but

00:40:06

thanks so much for being on the show. I

00:40:08

want you to stick around for a minute

00:40:10

here uh after we finish up. But um yeah,

00:40:14

keep us posted as you go. Okay.

00:40:16

>> I I'll absolutely do it. Thank you for

00:40:18

having me on. In closing, I just like to

00:40:20

say that Ukrainians are very resilient

00:40:23

people. Um, I think it's a human quality

00:40:26

and people are getting up and they're

00:40:28

going to work and they're building

00:40:29

apartments and they're, you know,

00:40:31

manufacturing drones and they're

00:40:33

planting their crops and they're doing

00:40:35

this under tremendous pressure. I hope

00:40:37

the United States helps more than we

00:40:39

have been recently. Um, but there are

00:40:41

other other companies and other folks

00:40:43

looking around and now is the time to

00:40:46

get involved. I really think so. Yeah.

00:40:49

>> Yeah. But especially from a contrarian

00:40:51

perspective, for sure.

00:40:53

>> Yeah.

00:40:53

>> So,

00:40:54

>> all right, Bruce, thanks so much and and

00:40:56

keep us posted and we'll have you on

00:40:58

again. Okay.

00:40:59

>> Thank you. I'll do it.

All press and interviews